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Prediction for CME (2024-11-04T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-04T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34402/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is visible in SOHO LASCO C3 after a data gap from 2024-11-04T02:18Z to 2024-11-04T05:43Z. The CME is associated with an M3.8 flare from AR 3883 (approximately S04E42) peaking at 2024-11-04T01:40Z. The eruption can be seen in all wavelengths of SDO AIA imagery, with brightening best seen in SDO AIA 131, dimming and EUV wave best seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-06T07:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-04 04:54
 - Time at C2: 2024-11-04 01:36
 - Radial speed: 1067.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N12E37
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 726.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-11-06 07:00 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.42 hours)
Lead Time: 39.22 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-11-04T15:47Z
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